US Stocks: What Could Go Wrong? The US stock market is hovering near all-time highs, US large-company stocks have gained over 13% so far this year, and the “bull” market is over 4 years old–maybe getting long in the tooth. Did stocks go up too much too fast? Are US stock prices going to tumble? …Read More
Beer, Natural Gas, and Manufacturing
German Beer, Chinese Natural Gas, and US Manufacturing Is the US economy struggling? Economists and policy makers look at statistics and trends to draw conclusions. Data is important. But sometimes anecdotal evidence is useful as well. On May 1, three stories in the Washington Post didn’t seem to have much in common. They were about …Read More
Google Searches: the New Investment Strategy?
Google Searches: the New Investment Strategy? According to an article published this month in Nature, big-data researchers discovered that analyzing Google search terms over 8 years produced an investment strategy that clobbered even the best stock pickers. Using the word “debt” in search phrases resulted in a strategy that gained over 300% vs. 11% for …Read More
PBS Frontline Program: The Retirement Gamble
PBS Frontline: The Retirement Gamble [This post is an update to the one I wrote before the show.] The PBS Frontline program called “The Retirement Gamble” was well-done and mostly very accurate. You can see it online now. The title is a bit misleading, and came from a quote by John Bogle (below). Here are …Read More
J. K. Rowling on the Benefits of Failure
J. K. Rowling on the Benefits of Failure In her 2008 commencement address at Harvard (with crimson banners all around, the event was for her the world’s largest Gryffindor reunion) J. K. Rowling told the graduates and proud parents that 21 years before, she graduated and failed “on an epic scale” and entered a dark …Read More