In many ways, the past three years have been a reaction and recovery from the pandemic that was so devastating in 2020. We had: business shutdowns, labor disruption, supply chain bottlenecks, inflation related to changing spending patterns, pent up money in bank accounts, government stimulus and withdrawal, Federal Reserve action and unwinding that action.
Perhaps 2024 will be the first year since 2019 when the economy will be in more of a steady state mode.
As always, there may be geopolitical shocks that cause trouble: war in the Middle East and Ukraine, increasing friction with China, self-inflicted wounds from a dysfunctional federal government budget process, and of course things that aren’t even on the radar now. And while a recession was predicted for 2023 but did not materialize, there are some economic storm clouds that may yet cause trouble for 2024: very high US government deficit, Federal Reserve interest rate policy that may overshoot, and slowing growth in China.
But for now, it’s gratifying to see investment accounts that survived the big downturns of 2022, and provided nice profits and income in 2023.
Happy and Healthy New Year!