Big Ideas: US Energy Independence in 20 Years
For most of our adult lives, oil has had a huge influence on the US economy and foreign policy. (Remember: the gas lines in the 1970s? the first Gulf War to reverse Kuwait’s takeover by Iraq?) In the next 20 years, oil will still dominate, but for a different reason: the US will become independent of foreign sources of energy.
The US will become energy independent in 20 years!
Advances in drilling techniques have made it possible to tap huge US reserves of previously inaccessible oil.
US oil imports peaked in 2005 and the decline is accelerating
The International Energy Agency predicts that the US will be the world’s largest exporter of oil next year — larger than Saudi Arabia and Russia.
What will that mean for the US economy? US foreign policy? Investments?
If managed well, this windfall will be a strong tail wind for the US economy. It will directly affect production-related employment, and indirectly affect every segment of the economy because energy is a cost in every product and service.
It won’t mean the US is immune to world oil price changes. Oil prices may go up because countries like China and India have begun to use very large amounts of energy as their economies grow. And the reserves of big oil producers now are shrinking.
It also might slow US efforts to become more energy efficient and reduce greenhouse gas emissions which are causing climate change.
But this “Big Idea” will be a turning point for the US. In our lives, we will see the pendulum swing from the negative impact of oil dependence (1970s) to the positive impact of oil independence.